Well both school and work have become more demanding since spring break has ended..So I think I'm going to have to put a hold on the forecasting. However, if I do go storm chasing which is very likely im may. I will update what happens with my friend andrew. Hopefully we have a camera by then.
until then...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Forecast for Monday 3/9 - Wednesday 3/11
Looks like we got about 2 inches of rain last night in Lawrence. Nothing to significant to report as far as severe weather. National weather service did issue a thunderstorm warning for Douglas county around 8:45 pm mostly for some decent size hail reported outside the city. The sole tornado activity last night occurred near Hutchinson, Kansas with several small touchdowns near the airport. now on to the forecast....
Monday: a high of 60 increasing clouds throughout the day with 40 % of thunderstorms by evening. winds from the south to southeast 10-15 mph.
Monday night: a low of 48 with a 80% of thunderstorms, best chances occuring between 7 pm - 12 am.
Tuesday: a high of 50, with temperature falling off in the afternoon as a strong cold front passes. slight chance of thundershowers during the day. winds south at 10-15 mph shifting to the northwest at 15-20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph
Tuesday Night: decreasing cloudiness with a low of 22. A cold northwest wind continuing at 15-20 mph gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday: skies mostly sunny by afternoon with a high of 37
notes: low level jet returns yet again tonight bring good amount of moisture and WAA continuing during Monday. Very similar situation as Saturday night with again best chance by models in the 00Z- 06Z time frame. Even better upper level support with greater PVA and jet stream providing good amount of divergence.
Monday: a high of 60 increasing clouds throughout the day with 40 % of thunderstorms by evening. winds from the south to southeast 10-15 mph.
Monday night: a low of 48 with a 80% of thunderstorms, best chances occuring between 7 pm - 12 am.
Tuesday: a high of 50, with temperature falling off in the afternoon as a strong cold front passes. slight chance of thundershowers during the day. winds south at 10-15 mph shifting to the northwest at 15-20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph
Tuesday Night: decreasing cloudiness with a low of 22. A cold northwest wind continuing at 15-20 mph gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday: skies mostly sunny by afternoon with a high of 37
notes: low level jet returns yet again tonight bring good amount of moisture and WAA continuing during Monday. Very similar situation as Saturday night with again best chance by models in the 00Z- 06Z time frame. Even better upper level support with greater PVA and jet stream providing good amount of divergence.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Forecast for Saturday 3/7 - Sunday 3/8
Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with a southwest wind at 10-15 mph. High of 69, 20 % of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Cloudy skies with winds from the south to southwest at 10-15 mph. A low of 44. Thunderstorms likely in the late evening to over night. 60 % of precipitation.
Sunday: mostly cloudy skies with a high of 59 winds from the north at 10-15 mph decreasing throughout the day.
Outlook: Monday and tuesday will have continued warm weather with a highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s. On both days we will have a slight chance of thunderstorms (spring really is almost here!) Unfourtenly by wednesday colder temperature will return with lows in the lower 20s for Wednesday and Thursday with highs reaching mid 50s.
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notes: warm front associated with low centered in western Kansas has passed over Lawrence. thunderstorm and shower initiation did not form as the front approached with fairly dry air present. Look to see this system to move slowly east to southeast. Upper air support will be greater tomorrow with the trough axis located in central Colorado then passing over western Kansas by Sunday morning. Isotropic lift will also be greater with temperature gradient over Kansas, Nebraska border. Vorticity max advection will be at 12 Z Sunday. CAP will be greatest 00Z Sun, this is also best area of isotropic lift as well. Low level jet will weaken some and be more westerly by afternoon Saturday into evening. Both models are saying best chance 6Z-12 Z for precipitation. RUC is predicting LI -4 to -6 range through 6Z-12 Z, CAPE 800-900 range.
Saturday Night: Cloudy skies with winds from the south to southwest at 10-15 mph. A low of 44. Thunderstorms likely in the late evening to over night. 60 % of precipitation.
Sunday: mostly cloudy skies with a high of 59 winds from the north at 10-15 mph decreasing throughout the day.
Outlook: Monday and tuesday will have continued warm weather with a highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s. On both days we will have a slight chance of thunderstorms (spring really is almost here!) Unfourtenly by wednesday colder temperature will return with lows in the lower 20s for Wednesday and Thursday with highs reaching mid 50s.
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notes: warm front associated with low centered in western Kansas has passed over Lawrence. thunderstorm and shower initiation did not form as the front approached with fairly dry air present. Look to see this system to move slowly east to southeast. Upper air support will be greater tomorrow with the trough axis located in central Colorado then passing over western Kansas by Sunday morning. Isotropic lift will also be greater with temperature gradient over Kansas, Nebraska border. Vorticity max advection will be at 12 Z Sunday. CAP will be greatest 00Z Sun, this is also best area of isotropic lift as well. Low level jet will weaken some and be more westerly by afternoon Saturday into evening. Both models are saying best chance 6Z-12 Z for precipitation. RUC is predicting LI -4 to -6 range through 6Z-12 Z, CAPE 800-900 range.
Friday, March 6, 2009
gotta work tonight
I would be updating the forecast but unfortunately I have to help make burritos tonight..but here's a few comments. Looks like a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight and then tomorrow best chances will be Saturday evening. Both of these periods could see some severe weather. Hopefully later tonight I can update with a proper forecast for the weekend
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Forecast for Tuesday March 3rd - Thursday March 5th (with weekend outlook)
Tuesday: Conditions will finally start to warm up a bit with a high of 44. A few high clouds with a south wind at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night: Temps will fall to around 32 degrees with skies mostly clear south wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Expect some areas of fog in the morning, with our high reaching 61. Mostly sunny skies once the fog clears out with a south wind at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night: A clear warm night of 42 with south wind at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Looks to be a great day with spring making an appearance with a high of 77! Partly cloudy skies with a south wind 10 mph.
Weekend Outlook: Unlike last week, the warm temperatures will continue to stay here for the weekend with highs being in the mid 60s all throughout the weekend. We do have a chance for thunderstorms it looks like Saturday Evening. As of right now the models are showing a situation typically found in the spring time for severe weather. I'll have to keep an eye on that and look forward to seeing how the forecast shows up for this period.
Tuesday Night: Temps will fall to around 32 degrees with skies mostly clear south wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Expect some areas of fog in the morning, with our high reaching 61. Mostly sunny skies once the fog clears out with a south wind at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night: A clear warm night of 42 with south wind at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Looks to be a great day with spring making an appearance with a high of 77! Partly cloudy skies with a south wind 10 mph.
Weekend Outlook: Unlike last week, the warm temperatures will continue to stay here for the weekend with highs being in the mid 60s all throughout the weekend. We do have a chance for thunderstorms it looks like Saturday Evening. As of right now the models are showing a situation typically found in the spring time for severe weather. I'll have to keep an eye on that and look forward to seeing how the forecast shows up for this period.
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