John's Weather Blog of Storm Chasing and Lawrence forecasting

ITS HOT

2009-06-24T01:03:00.003-05:00

3 days in a row of either breaking or tieing the record high.

June 21st Previous Record High: 93 (2002), Tied it this year.
June 22nd Previous Record High: 93 (2002), broke it reaching 97 Degrees.
June 23rd Previous Record High: 91 (1998), Broke it reaching 100 Degrees.
June 24th Previous Record High: 96(2005), ??? My Forecast: 99 Degrees.
June 25th Previous Record High: 97(2005), ?? My Forecast: 98 Degrees.
June 26th Previous Record High: 96(2005), ?? My Forecast: 96 Degrees.
June 27th Previous Record High: 97(2005), ?? My Forecast: 98 Degrees.

So its quiet possible we could have nearly a whole week of record temperatures. Although this doesn't seem to quiet out of the ordinary. Just look at 2005 where we had a new record from 24th-27th.

I'm not sure what the dewpoints were back in 2005, but all this week we've had dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. That makes the heat index to nearly 110 degrees! Needless to say be careful out there and keep hydrated!

As for past this week temperatures should fall off a few degrees but will remain in the 90s. Chances for rain should increase as we head into next week so there's a chance of some cooling off in those periods too.

Reports from the Last Two Months Part 2

2009-06-22T01:00:00.008-05:00

Once Andy left the US still experienced the "Ridge Fest" for atleast another week. Finally on June 7th I decided to go chase alone. This was my first time chasing alone and it was much harder navigating around.

As you can see here on the 300 mb chart at least some form of a jet stream across Colorado which looking eastward difluence out providing some upper level divergence (indicated by the contours of yellow on the map) This was not seen for atleast the previous 3 weeks so obviously I was excited to finally see some kind of cyclonic development.

At the lower levels of the atmosphere (850 mb) a low was forming on leeward side of the Rockies another typical occurrence that was not happening in the last 3 weeks. With these factors in place it aided with moisture advection from the south with a week frontal zone near the KS/Neb border. There was also a cold front located west of Topeka that can't really been seen by this chart.

With these and of course other countless parameters the Storm prediction center put a moderate risk for Northeastern KS, Southeastern NEB, and Northwestern MO.

My original target was somewhere west of Topeka. I decided on this area because this is where the frontal zone was located and figured this is where the thunderstorm initiation would form. However, once I was driving out towards Topeka I noticed a good amount of high cirrus clouds. This does not help with instability and forming convection. I then decided to start heading north because I noticed cumbus clouds began to build. As I updated the radar on my phone I saw the first storm had formed near Marysville, KS. I then raced along highway 75 northbound, figuring that there would also be some storms developing south of the first cell. Sure enough it did and here are some early pictures of that storm:

There was some weak updrafts forming on the rear backside of the storm, which is typically where you find rotation/tornadoes however this storm was still very early in its life span. After seeing this storm not materializing much, I decided to go after the first storm that formed near Marysville, which was now located east of Beatrice, Nebraska. On my way there I saw literally hundreds of storm chasing. Even some of the massive vortex 2 research project (read more at http://www.vortex2.org/home/) I also saw Reed Timmer in his dominator(a vehile designed to drive INSIDE a tornado). If you have ever watched storm chasers on discovery channel you know who this is.

As I was on storm #2 there was a wall cloud which can somewhat seen here:
After this everything went down hill. Got caught up in HORRIBLE traffic on I-29, which was a mixture of scared regular people driving like 80 year olds or crazed storm chasers driving like...crazed storm chasers. Storm #1, which was from those first two pictures was quickly intensifying and was then tornado warned. Here is a picture of it nearing its mature stage:
It was very difficult catching up to storm #1 and I decided to give up since the sun was nearing sunset. There was a brief tornado from storm #1 during the time I decided to call it quits.

This was not the end of the road for me but also not the end of disappointment.

On June 10th the setup was near the same as June 7th except the frontal boundary was south of Lawrence around Wichita running west to east. The lee rocky mts low also developed in a slightly difference location. I had to make a tough choice here on my original target area. It was clear it was either going to be West or East of Wichita. SPC first had a moderate risk located northwest of Wichita but later changed to southeast. I was not sure about the move but the models were pointing to greater helecity (the tendency for updrafts in thunderstorms to rotate) east of Wichita. I decided to go with what SPC was saying and went to Augusta, Kansas (east of Wichita)

Along this trip I bought along my girlfriend Mahleah and her friend Natalie. I was surprised I could actually get people to come with me as I drove over 12 hours and for the most part had a very disappointing day. What ended up happening was a classic supercell developed near Dodge City. It turns out here the greatest helecity occurred and also a good amount of positive vorticity advenction. This can be seen here in the 00 Z analysis of that day:

The storms that we intercepted in southeastern Kansas just would not rotate much. If you liked a lot of rain and lightning it was a blast though (no pun intended :P) A few interesting images were taken though:

These pictures were taken south of Howard, Kansas. After the storm showed a little rotation located on that last picture, the cluster of storms started to lack any rotational features. It all just became a big area of heavy rain, small hail, and lightning. I experienced some of the heaviest rain I ever saw though while driving. I had to pull over and let the storm pass some while on highway 75 north of Independence, Kansas. Finally I caught some great distant lightning as we about 20 miles away from the cluster of storms.

Reports from the Last Two Months Part 1

2009-06-15T00:12:00.012-05:00

Last time I posted, Andrew had just arrived and we were both excited about the month of May. This is typically the most active month in the plain states for severe weather. However, this year was absolutely awful. What occurred was what the storm chasing folks called a "ridge fest." Basically this meant that in the upper levels of the atmosphere a large ridge of high pressure was "blocking" any developing troughs from reaching the lower 48. The jet stream, which aids in the development of large scale upward motion, was none existent in the Central plains for about 2 weeks time. This of course occurred when I finally finished school and had an entire week of work off. Instead of driving out to the middle of nowhere watching convection build in the late afternoon, we were left watching lovely boring blue skies.

However, prior to the "ridge fest" we did get two chases in together. The first chased occurred on Friday May 1st, 2009. Our target location was Wichita Falls, Texas. As I woke up at 7 am that morning I started saying to myself, "I cannot believe I'm driving 8 hours to see storms", but in all honestly it was not a bad first chase at all. We arrived in Wichita Falls around 3 pm with the first storm showing up southwest of Wichita Falls. We raced southward as I predicted at least a few more storms to develop along a weak frontal boundary. Sure enough we ended up intercepting a decent supercell near Seymour, Texas.

Here is an image of the surface chart at 4 pm for the Texas Panhandle. Note the large temperature gradients as well as a dry line in place (a 19 degree dewpoint vs. 50!)

Although no tornadoes did form, We did witness a good structured wall cloud producing some weak rotation. We also caught a very brief (seconds only!) gustnado on Andrew's camera. Gustnadoes are produced by a thunderstorm's gust front and are seen as quickly rotating spin ups of dust. However, this storm would die off very quickly as the cold front pushed southward bring much cooler dry air thus "killing off" instability in the atmosphere.

Here are some images I took of that day. Please disregard the weird effects my camera does (although it looks cool not what I really wanted)

Following that day, we were presented with a few opportunities to chase but the month of May is not only busy for storm chasers but also college students. With that in mind I dropped Andrew off with his friend Nick from Nebraska. On May 13th they intercepted a EF1 Tornado that went through the town of Kirksville, Missouri. Here is the best image of that tornado from them:
video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsUNqn-I1j8

On Friday May 15th just 2 days after Andrew intercepted the Kirksville tornado, Nick and Andrew drove back down here to Lawrence. The setup was looking good earlier in the day of Lawrence, but by the time they arrived here the storm was already on top of Lawrence. We then travelled south to Ottawa, Kansas jumping on I-35 in hopes of seeing some interesting outflow from the storm. However, we only witnessed a weak boundary of shelf clouds and soon just endless amounts of ordinary rain.

After this quick chase the great "ridge fest" of 2009 began and thus my adventures with Andrew with me were done. However, June has been a much better month for severe weather. A detailed report of what I've seen in the month comes tomorrow in part 2 !

Storm Chasing Season

2009-04-29T01:02:00.003-05:00

So my friend Andrew is here and it officially begins the storm chasing for us! Unfortunately he came here a day late because this past weekend was very active. I even observed some large scale rotation all across the Lawrence area which later would produce a short live tornado just outside of Lawrence near 1-70. Actually saw some of the damage on Monday for a farm house. The following day also saw wide area of storms although less tornadoes were reported and mostly were southwest of Wichita.

Right now for Tuesday night there are a few areas of convection in the Texas panhandle although nothing to impressive. The upper air support for the new few days not favor a major outbreak, although lower levels look decent for great plains. We might go out tomorrow probably south of Lawrence but with shear indices from models not looking to impressive along with upper wind support lacking not expecting much. There is enough instability and two cyclones that will help produce some convection.

Forecast updates on hold for the time being

2009-03-26T22:01:00.002-05:00

Well both school and work have become more demanding since spring break has ended..So I think I'm going to have to put a hold on the forecasting. However, if I do go storm chasing which is very likely im may. I will update what happens with my friend andrew. Hopefully we have a camera by then.

until then...

Forecast for Monday 3/9 - Wednesday 3/11

2009-03-08T23:45:00.005-05:00

Looks like we got about 2 inches of rain last night in Lawrence. Nothing to significant to report as far as severe weather. National weather service did issue a thunderstorm warning for Douglas county around 8:45 pm mostly for some decent size hail reported outside the city. The sole tornado activity last night occurred near Hutchinson, Kansas with several small touchdowns near the airport. now on to the forecast....

Monday: a high of 60 increasing clouds throughout the day with 40 % of thunderstorms by evening. winds from the south to southeast 10-15 mph.

Monday night: a low of 48 with a 80% of thunderstorms, best chances occuring between 7 pm - 12 am.

Tuesday: a high of 50, with temperature falling off in the afternoon as a strong cold front passes. slight chance of thundershowers during the day. winds south at 10-15 mph shifting to the northwest at 15-20 mph. Gusts as high as 30 mph

Tuesday Night: decreasing cloudiness with a low of 22. A cold northwest wind continuing at 15-20 mph gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday: skies mostly sunny by afternoon with a high of 37

notes: low level jet returns yet again tonight bring good amount of moisture and WAA continuing during Monday. Very similar situation as Saturday night with again best chance by models in the 00Z- 06Z time frame. Even better upper level support with greater PVA and jet stream providing good amount of divergence.

Forecast for Saturday 3/7 - Sunday 3/8

2009-03-07T01:48:00.002-06:00

Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with a southwest wind at 10-15 mph. High of 69, 20 % of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Cloudy skies with winds from the south to southwest at 10-15 mph. A low of 44. Thunderstorms likely in the late evening to over night. 60 % of precipitation.

Sunday: mostly cloudy skies with a high of 59 winds from the north at 10-15 mph decreasing throughout the day.

Outlook: Monday and tuesday will have continued warm weather with a highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s. On both days we will have a slight chance of thunderstorms (spring really is almost here!) Unfourtenly by wednesday colder temperature will return with lows in the lower 20s for Wednesday and Thursday with highs reaching mid 50s.

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notes: warm front associated with low centered in western Kansas has passed over Lawrence. thunderstorm and shower initiation did not form as the front approached with fairly dry air present. Look to see this system to move slowly east to southeast. Upper air support will be greater tomorrow with the trough axis located in central Colorado then passing over western Kansas by Sunday morning. Isotropic lift will also be greater with temperature gradient over Kansas, Nebraska border. Vorticity max advection will be at 12 Z Sunday. CAP will be greatest 00Z Sun, this is also best area of isotropic lift as well. Low level jet will weaken some and be more westerly by afternoon Saturday into evening. Both models are saying best chance 6Z-12 Z for precipitation. RUC is predicting LI -4 to -6 range through 6Z-12 Z, CAPE 800-900 range.

gotta work tonight

2009-03-06T16:59:00.002-06:00

I would be updating the forecast but unfortunately I have to help make burritos tonight..but here's a few comments. Looks like a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight and then tomorrow best chances will be Saturday evening. Both of these periods could see some severe weather. Hopefully later tonight I can update with a proper forecast for the weekend

Forecast for Tuesday March 3rd - Thursday March 5th (with weekend outlook)

2009-03-03T02:24:00.002-06:00

Tuesday: Conditions will finally start to warm up a bit with a high of 44. A few high clouds with a south wind at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Temps will fall to around 32 degrees with skies mostly clear south wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Expect some areas of fog in the morning, with our high reaching 61. Mostly sunny skies once the fog clears out with a south wind at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night: A clear warm night of 42 with south wind at 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Looks to be a great day with spring making an appearance with a high of 77! Partly cloudy skies with a south wind 10 mph.

Weekend Outlook: Unlike last week, the warm temperatures will continue to stay here for the weekend with highs being in the mid 60s all throughout the weekend. We do have a chance for thunderstorms it looks like Saturday Evening. As of right now the models are showing a situation typically found in the spring time for severe weather. I'll have to keep an eye on that and look forward to seeing how the forecast shows up for this period.

Forecast for Friday Evening 2/27 - Saturday Evening

2009-02-27T14:42:00.000-06:00

Main forecast concern will be the possibility of snow for late Friday night into Saturday morning. It looks like our best chance of snow will be after midnight into early morning hours of Saturday.

Friday Night - expect temperatures during the evening to be in the lower 30s falling off to 22 by the early morning hours. A 80% chance of snow with 1-2 inch of snow accumulated by Saturday morning. Best chance will be after midnight into 6 am time frame.

Saturday - slight chance of lingering snow flakes in the morning then skies becoming cloudy with a high of 27. A cold northwest wind at 15-20 mph. Wind chill factors will be in the lower 10s.

Saturday Night - Continued cold conditions with temperatures keeping steady in the lower 20s skies cloudy with a continued cold northwest wind at 10-15 mph.

Forecast for Wednesday Feb 25 - Friday Feb 27

2009-02-25T01:20:00.001-06:00

Today - will be an even better day to be outside with a high of 66 with a warm south wind at 10 mph. Mostly sunny skies.

Tonight - expect increasing clouds with the low only getting down to 48 winds variable from the east. Slight chance of rain in the morning.

Thursday - another warm day with a of 63 with a 40 % of showers and thunderstorms. Best chance will be from 12 pm to 6 pm time frame. Chances should decrease pretty rapidly as this system moves off quickly along with a cold front that's expected to pass Lawrence around dinner time.

Thursday night - cloudy skies with a low of 31 winds from the north at 10 mph.

Friday Night/Weekend outlook: Colder air continues to return to the air with highs only reaching mid 30s with lows in the 20s both Friday and Saturday night. Also might have a slight chance of snow Saturday morning. Shouldn't be anything to significant.

update on current forecast

2009-02-24T01:04:00.000-06:00

Low tonight of 34 instead and a high of 58. Other than that forecast remains the same. Stuff on the bottom is notes for me. Read if your interested in how some of the weather models are behaving quite differently for tomorrow.

models are both looking to be way off in both directions temperature wise for tomorrow's low and high. GFS is predicting overcast skies over night bring a low of 37 but in fact the temperature right now is already at 32 degrees with only a few high clouds. NAM is forecasting a bit less cloud cover with its low at 34. I think the temperature will rise however, with some good WAA from the south so I'm going to keep the low at 32.

For highs is the GFS and NAM differ even more. NAM is saying 60, which is what I originally predicted, while the GFS is saying 52. GFS still seems to be overly forecasting clouds with NAM still continuing breakage in clouds. So I will go with a slightly lower value of 58 for tomorrow.

Monday Feb 23- Tuesday Feb 24 Forecast

2009-02-23T00:02:00.000-06:00

Looks to be a nice two days here to start off the week ( but pretty boring for a meteorologist, we've got this huge trough of low pressure blocking just about anything interesting for the western half of the US)

Monday Morning - Will be a bit cold going to school/work this morning around 20 degrees

Monday - expect a quick warm up though with mostly sunny skies with just a few clouds high of 52. Winds from the southeast at 10 mph.

Tuesday Morning - around 32 with winds from the south 10 mph partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday - going to be a great day to be out with a high of 60 with winds continuing from the south (helps bring warmer air :) )

Wednesday Morning - maintaining about the same pattern here with a low around 30 skies becoming clear light winds from south 5 mph.

Quick outlook for rest of the week: Might have some more interesting weather past Wednesday with surface low developing in Texas. Might bring a chance of rain/thunderstorms Thursday with some cooler temperatures. Shouldn't be anything to bad with highs around mid 40s and lows around lower 30s.

Weekend looks to be about the same temperature wise no chances of any precipitation but still to far out to accurately say for sure.

Friday Feb. 20-Sunday Feb 22 Forecast

2009-02-20T02:05:00.000-06:00

Bold is for times when most people are out. I think I will try to focus these weekend forecasts on those periods.

Friday looks to be a wonderful day with temperatures reaching 59 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately this good weather will not last with a cold front that will reach Lawrence around 7 pm-9 pm time frame.

Expect colder temperatures for Friday night (lower 40s-upper 30s) with the coolest temperature reaching about 26 (in the early morning hours). With this front is also a small chance of flurries. Don't expect anything significance other than a few snow flakes in the late evening and over night period.

For Saturday the colder air will continue to be present in our area with our highs only reaching 34. Skies will continue to be cloudy.

Saturday night will be even colder (lower 20s to upper teens) reaching 14 by the early morning hours. Expect very cold conditions if you are going to be out Saturday night :(

Finally for Sunday, we will finally get sunny skies with temperatures rebounding a bit to 41.

First post!

2009-02-19T02:06:00.001-06:00

First forecast will be tomorrow night I look forward to it!